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The good and bad news for homeowners
Both sides of being a homeowner

A year ago, in July 2007, US bank Bear Stearns was beginning to crumble, and make headlines over here. Now, UK companies are planning on cutting 440,000 jobs in the next two years to stabilise their own outgoings, according to a study by Capital Economics.


It's easy to become saturated with information about the state of the UK economy. We bring you our take on the good and bad news, for homeowners.

 

1. House prices

Bad news: House prices fell by 2.4% in May alone. Back in 2007, house prices were being predicted to rise anywhere between 3.5% and 8% in a year - now they are predicted to fall at least 3% (Capital Economics) by 2009.

Good news: Although homeowners face a reduction in their equity, there is little impact for those looking to up or downsize, with house prices falling across the board. First-time buyers and landlords - who have seen a 41% increase in the uptake of leases in the last year (Your Move) - are among those with the potential to benefit from falling house prices.

 

2. Mortgage approvals

Bad news: Mortgage approvals are at their lowest level since records began in 1993, according to Bank of England figures. Approvals for May were down 67% on the previous year.

Good news: According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, strong remortgaging activity is holding the market up.

 

3. Repossessions

Bad news: In the last year (May 07 - May 08) there has been a 17% rise in repossession orders - partially the result of homeowners being unable to pay back unrealistic mortgages.

Good news:  Though the 27,100 repossessions predicted for this year is higher than 2007, this is nowhere near the 75,100 homes repossessed in the 1991 property crash.

 

4. Inflation

Bad news: Petrol is up 17% on last year, food is up 12.6%, energy bills are predicted to rise 40% and the Chancellor has called for a freeze in wage rises to stabilise the situation. Many of us will need to cut back on our spending habits.

Good news: In the 1970s, inflation topped 27%. We have been experiencing a long period of low inflation, which is why a rise in costs only seems shocking, according to Dr Andrew Sentance of the Monetary Policy Committee.

 

5. Housing market

Bad news:  The number of home sales has fallen 32% in the last year (Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs) and the number of new homes being built is down 60% (National House Building Council). Those most affected are property developers and investors. Anyone looking to sell their home is also likely to have a longer wait, with first-time buyers waiting for the market to bottom out or battling to get a mortgage, and homeowners staying put.

Good news: First-time buyers, cash buyers, international buyers, investors - read our feature about those who can benefit from the current housing market.

 

6. Interest rates

Bad news: Mervyn King has stated that 'interest rate rises cannot be ruled out.' A rise in interest rates could mean a rise in payouts for homeowners with a variable rate mortgage.

Good news: The Bank of England held interest rates at a relatively low 5% on June 5, and many economists are predicting another drop. In the event of a rate rise, savers stand to benefit.

 

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Gordon Coe, Project Manager, Ascot

"I have two kids and since this time last year we seem to get so much less in our weekly shop. We're keeping very close tabs on our expenditure. Our plan was to move house this year as we need more room for the kids - however plummeting house prices in our area has put this on hold, as we'd rather wait for the market to bottom out before we make our move."

Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, June 19 2008

We face the most difficult economic challenge for decades...It will not be an easy time, and I know that some families will find it particularly difficult.

Cost of living facts

  • The average person needs to earn at least £13,400 a year, before tax, to reach the minimum standard of living (Joseph Rowntree Foundation)
  • Inflation may reach 4% before it starts to drop, according to Mervyn King
  • The UK has the highest cost of living anywhere in the Western world (Economic Research Institute)
  • The cost of food has gone up 12.6% in the last year, according to The Grocer magazine

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